Notes
Outline
President’s Report
 on SRJC’s Fiscal Stability
Presented to the Board of Trustees
March 13, 2001
President’s Goal
“Present to the Board of Trustees, by March 1, 2001, a report examining historical and projected revenues and expenditures, enrollment patterns, and other variables, to evaluate and ensure the long-term fiscal stability of the college.”
Study Questions
How have we managed our resources?
What did we do when times were lean?
What did we change when times got better?
What were the environmental factors that affected us then, and are they changing?
What are our strengths, and how did we acquire them?
What are our weaknesses, and what will it cost to convert them to strengths?
Environmental Factors
Sonoma County Population
Sonoma’s Younger Population
Sonoma County Unemployment Rate
Workforce with College Degree
Industries Driving Sonoma County’s Economy
Labor Force and Wage Growth
Full-Time Faculty by Age
Classified Staff Age Distribution
Enrollment Trends
Funded Credit FTES
Funded Non-Credit FTES
Funded Total FTES
Unduplicated Annual Headcount
Headcount and Average Units Enrolled
Average Units Enrolled
First Time Freshman Age Distribution
High School Graduates Enrolling at SRJC
High School Graduates
SRJC Student Ethnicity
FTES Annual Percentage Change
FTES Projection
Revenue Trends
State COLA and CPI
Revenue Lost from No-Growth Pattern
General Fund Revenue Sources
Foundation 5 Year Rolling Returns
Foundation Investment Growth and Distribution
Doyle Trust Revenue History
Expenditure Trends
Salary, CPI, and State COLA Patterns
Dental Plan Experience
Kaiser Premiums
HPR Premiums
Gas and Electric Expenditures
All Scholarship Report
Classroom Patterns
Average Class Size by Location
WSCH per FTEF
Sections compared with Headcount
Capital Outlay Trends
Age of Campus Buildings
Capital Expenditures
Planned Facilities Projects
Projected Annual Non-Instructional Operating Costs
Learning Resource Center
4.75 FTE Library Staff $302,000
7.75 FTE Classified Staff $394,000
Maintenance at $1.75 asf $147,000
TOTAL $843,000
Petaluma Phase II
4.0 FTE Library Staff $256,000
7.55 FTE Library Classified Staff $324,000
7.75 FTE Classified Staff $394,000
Maintenance at $1.75 asf $170,000
TOTAL $1,144,000
Headcount per Parking Space
Summary of Findings
Favorable External Factors in the 1990’s
Flat costs in health care benefits
Very stable energy prices
Steady, low inflation rates
Rapid growth in Foundation assets
Rapid population growth, and increases in high school graduates
Strong improvement in the state economy after the early 1990’s
PERS employer contribution rate of 7%+ rescinded
Unfavorable External Factors in the 1990’s
Four-year base revenue loss from no COLA
Statutory COLA was significantly below CPI
Significant, continuous growth in categorical state funding
Growing competition from other postsecondary institutions
Cost of housing
Diminished labor supply
Wage pressures
Favorable College Factors in the 1990’s
Wages kept pace with inflation
Petaluma Campus constructed
Coddingtown Center, Race Building, Call Center, Button Building, etc.
Rapid growth in scholarships
Ability to draw on General Fund for capital projects
Growing attendance of minority students
Stable fund reserve
Unfavorable College Factors in the 1990’s
Inability to achieve all funded growth
Diminished budget flexibility caused by restricted funds
Increased costs of serving high risk students
Recent decline in attendance rates of high school graduates
Decline in overall institutional efficiency
Use of transferred FTES from future year
Higher costs associated with instructional technology
Unfavorable College Factors in the 1990’s - continued
Increasing headcount, but lower student academic loads
Growing parking problem on Santa Rosa Campus
Lack of growth on Santa Rosa Campus
Heavy reliance on temporary employees, student workers, and adjunct faculty
Aging facilities on Santa Rosa Campus
Wage pressures
Recruitment difficulties
Aging college workforce
Tight budget
Future Trends
Future Trends
Population growth in the county, combined with relatively steady pools of high school graduates, will help the college sustain its current enrollment
SRJC’s growth potential will be softened by a projected continuation of a low unemployment rate, by improvements in state and federal student financial aid programs, and by emerging competitors in postsecondary education
The college will pay increasing attention to the marginal benefits of adding more courses off-campus because of the greater inefficiencies associated with offering instruction at over 100 locations
Future Trends
While continuing to seek improvements in its strategies for attracting and retaining traditional high school graduates, SRJC will move toward providing instructional services at non-traditional times in an effort to carve out new, untapped student markets
Labor supply pressures, combined with SRJC peer group wage increases, will place pressure on SRJC wages and recruitment efforts
Infusing technology into the classroom and student support services will be essential, but costly, in keeping SRJC’s reputation for quality services intact
Future Trends
A 50% turnover of faculty in the next decade will bring fresh ideas and energy, but also demands for improved classroom conditions and academic support services
Outreach services will continue to expand in an effort to attract and retain the growing ethnic minority populations in the county
The college’s scholarship offerings will level off as Foundation investments and shareholder earnings in the Doyle Trust grow at more modest rates of return
Future Trends
Energy costs and health and welfare benefit costs will skyrocket over the next three years before leveling off
Categorical funding will continue to place added pressure on the Board and college administration, reducing institutional flexibility in addressing local priorities
Some of the key buildings on the Santa Rosa campus will require attention as they approach the end of their useful life
Future Trends
The college’s capacity to use its General Fund to provide matching funds for new construction will be severely impacted by a change in state policy requiring a 50% local match instead of an approximate 10% match
Budget Projections
LAO Revenue Projections
General Fund Balance
Revenue Projections
Expenditure Projections
Revenue and Expenditure Projections
Projected Change in Fund Balance